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Violent Crime Rates as Pct of National rates 1980-1999

Florida is the state most often cited by the gun lobby as "proof" that Concealed Weapons laws reduce crime. But as the above graph shows, it did no such thing in Florida -- Florida's rates actually rose in comparison to the national rates in the first year following implementation and didn't show any significant decline until the 4th year -- a long time after, for the new law to be given credit for the drop. It should also be noted that, in the subsequent years, it has returned to the historic levels vis-a-vis the national rates.

Because of the presidential election -- and Gov. Bush's claim that Concealed Weapons would make Texas a safer state, we also look at Texas, where the violent crime rate compared to the national rate has actually climbed since the inplementation of CCW's there, reversing the trend before the law was implemented

Crime patterns are based on a complex mix of factors, and we aren't going to "blame" CCWs for the rise in Texas. All we will note is that the claims that violent crime has dropped in these states because of concealed carry laws is blatantly false since, compared to the rest of the nation, crime hasn't dropped.

The actual data:

Year U.S. Florida Texas
Rate Rate Pct US Rate Pct US
1980 596.6 983.5 164.8% 550.3 92.2%
1981 594.3 965.1 162.4% 532.4 89.6%
1982 571.1 896.8 157.0% 577.1 101.0%
1983 537.7 826.7 153.8% 512.2 95.3%
1984 539.2 868.0 161.0% 505.0 93.7%
1985 556.6 941.1 169.1% 550.0 98.8%
1986 617.7 1036.5 167.8% 658.9 106.7%
1987 609.7 1024.4 168.0% 631.1 103.5%
1988 637.2 1117.7 175.4% 652.6 102.4%
1989 663.1 1109.4 167.3% 658.5 99.3%
1990 731.8 1244.3 170.0% 761.4 104.0%
1991 758.1 1184.3 156.2% 840.1 110.8%
1992 757.5 1207.2 159.4% 806.3 106.4%
1993 746.8 1206.0 161.5% 762.1 102.1%
1994 713.6 1146.8 160.7% 706.5 99.0%
1995 684.6 1071.0 156.4% 663.9 97.0%
1996 636.5 1051.0 165.1% 644.4 101.2%
1997 610.8 1023.6 167.6% 602.5 98.6%
1998 566.4 938.7 165.7% 564.6 99.7%
1999 524.7 854.0 162.8% 560.3 106.8%

 
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©Copyright, 2000, Mike Rosenberg
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